A Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Cape Canaveral carrying the Deep Space Climate Observatory satellite on SpaceXs first deep space mission on Feb. 11, 2015. How were they able to make an affordable reusable launch vehicle? Another proposed method of reducing launch costs is the construction of a space elevator, a concept which can received some funding and attention in the United States and Japan. Starship does the opposite, it drops operational costs to almost just the cost of fuel, and construction costs end up being almost nothing in comparison. Visiting a space hotel could one day be as routine as a holiday overseas. Have we missed your company? (The space shuttle cost about $1.5 billion per mission, including development,. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. But it did fire its rocket engines many times without maintenance and it demonstrated the controls algorithms necessary for vertical landing. Keeping in mind that hydrogen is quite expensive than these two, a typical rocket with 1000 rocket propellant of fuel and oxygen is likely to cost about $100,000. Launch costs refer to the cost of sending a payload from the ground to outer space, specifically low Earth orbit (LEO). Seattle-based startup STOKE Space Technologies thinks so. A reusable rocket engine design will carry more safety margin. At the earlier natural gas price of $5.05 a unit, PNG was priced at Rs 25.5 an scm or Rs 26.8 per million calorie, five per cent higher than LPG. GTO payload with enhanced engines, as of GSLV version 2A, A suborbital test flight was conducted in 2014 (designated LVM-3/, 5,100 kg to a 500-km Sun-synchronous orbit; 3,300 kg to 800 km. "The Great Escape: SLS Provides Power for Missions to the Moon". Apple AirPods with Charging Case - 2nd Generation, White. Each bubble is (Military launches cost more.) Designed by NASA to be low-cost and reusable, it was the perfect starting point. Space Launch System launch cost to LEO: $200,000,000/140,000 kg = 14,286 $/kg Starship's fuel alone probably costs $200,000 let alone anything else. tax. For the sake of comparison, here's how ISRO's GSLV Mk III compares to some of the world's best launch vehicles. Physics Including other expenses, the total average cost per Space Shuttle flight is about $1.5 billion USD. The cost per kilogram in delivering payloads safely to orbit lay at the heart of the friction that prevented private industry from commercializing space. (Of course, SpaceX has since redesigned the engine to increase performance and for further improvements in manufacturability and cost.) Important Disclaimer (*): an asterisk (*) indicates that the company is a SpaceFund portfolio company. Our criteria for removing an entry from this database are as follows: If you feel your company has been removed from this database in error, please reach out to us directly to provide additional information. Both are just marginal cost. PLD Space - the future of the European launch market. Want to save up to 30% on your monthly bills? The Future of Space Flight Will an automated inspection solution be enough to increase its launch cadence? these figures were calculated in the methodology section. Choosing a Launch Vehicle Cost per kilogram to orbit is one means of comparing launch vehicles. Typical launch costs today are $10,000 US Dollars (USD) to $25,000 USD per kilogram ($4,500 to $11,000 USD per pound), though some countries subsidize space launches, occasionally reducing cost as low as $4,000 USD per kilogram ($1,800 USD per pound). Posted: 1st September 2018. You can also print the table. The first Energy Earthshot, launched June 7, 2021Hydrogen Shotseeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). The main cost parameter for launch systems cost is the number of flights per vehicle. It should be noted that not all rocket prices are publicly available, in fact, most aren't. Falcon Heavy: \$2200 Falcon 9 v 1.1- \$4,109 DNEPR- \$3,784 Ariane 5- \$10,476 Delta IV- \$13,072 Using a new range of payload carriers, Vega-C will be able to accommodate a mix of cargo shapes and sizes, ranging from CubeSats as small as one kilogram up to a single large payload. But CNBC noted in 2020 that the United States Air Force contracts paid around $95 million per Falcon 9. Search: To search within the entire table, simply type your query into the search area at the top right of the table. Join me as we walk through the history, the science and current technologies, and finally the interesting bets to make in an expansive future on the final frontier. Designed by NASA to be low-cost and reusable, BryceTechs 2020 Orbital Launch Year in Review report, Shuttles turn-around time was 24 months, RocketLab plans to catch Electron first stages with helicopters soon, NASA is gearing up to test the inflatable heat shield in 2022, Quilty Analytics report on Emerging Technologies for DIU. In comparison, SpaceX's Falcon Heavy, with. A unit price shows how much the product costs using a standard unit of measurement. kilogram of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO). Shopping. The first medieval rockets were solid-fuel rockets powered by gunpowder; they were used by the Chinese, Indians, Mongols and Arabs, in warfare as early as the 13th century. "NASA's goal is to reduce the cost of getting to space to hundreds of dollars per pound within 25 years and tens of dollars per pound within 40 years. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. to provide additional information about your technology, management team, funding history, and company progress. Examples of Space for Earth include things like DirecTV, GPS navigation, and weather satellites. Manage Settings The agency has also speculated that a space elevator (requiring 15 years to construct) would lower this cost even further, to just a few dollars per kilogram. Not including Orion, that's another billion. If you bear in mind that these figures are from 2015, and the Falcon 9 price has dropped from $4,000. He has also worked for the If you havent already, please consult ourSpaceFund Reality (SFR) ratings page to learn more about the rating, its purpose, and the underlying formula, as well as to view a complete list of the SpaceFund sectors of interest. Interviews 25 per kg ($1125 per. Archived from the original on 11 December 2019. Each bubble represents a launch vehicle and is sized according to Launch costs can be reduced somewhat by using reusable launch vehicles, but the poor cost performance of the reuseable Space Shuttle has caused many to question this idea. GTO payload is 8,000 kg when the core first-stage booster lands downrange on a drone ship (ASDS) and the side boosters return to the launch site (RTLS). This tool helps you do just that. NASA's contemporary heavy-lift rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS) has a cost over US$21.2 billion in year-of-expenditures dollars 2011-2021. For a fully expendable variant of the rocket, which can lift a theoretical maximum of 64 tons to low-Earth orbit, the price . Reusable rockets emerging victorious in the great debate on cost was not always a foregone conclusion. This probably drops launch prices in to the $500-$1,000/kg range, maybe lower as operations and infrastructure get more efficient? Spacecraft propulsion[note 1] is any method used to accelerate spacecraft and artificial satellites. To be fair, the Delta Clipper was a hopper vehicle to demonstrate feasibility for reusable vertical landing rockets it did not reach altitudes or speeds anywhere near those of launch and re-entry. Of those, 32 launches were American and 26 belonged to SpaceX's Falcon 9 . While many point to NASAs Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program as what enabled SpaceX to keep going during the early years, its worth noting that SpaceX did compete with ULA for launching DOD payloads too. Links Musk boasts of prices starting at $90 million for his . [note 2] Orbital launch systems are rockets and other systems capable of placing payloads into or beyond Earth orbit. Important Note (Companies not Vehicles): This database, and the SpaceFund Reality ratings, are based on COMPANIES, not launch vehicles. Aerojet Rocketdyne was very proud that they were able to reduce the price for 1 engine to $100 million for the second batch. It will be true, because it 'must' become true for us to colonize Mars. In 2021, there are three companies that have successfully flown vertical landing rockets: SpaceX (orbital), Blue Origin (suborbital), and Masten Space Systems (winner of lunar lander XPRIZE). Last year, globally, there were 114 total rocket launches [per BryceTechs 2020 Orbital Launch Year in Review report]. What we know is $800 million for a SLS core stage without engines. Welcome to r/SpaceXLounge, the sister subreddit to r/SpaceX, and a place for relaxed and laid-back discussion. double flywheel of technology development. I know not to underestimate Elon but Ill believe that when I see it. Launch cost per kilogram to LEO versus first launch date. Press J to jump to the feed. Its only got to hot fire 4 times in its life! Download: You can download this table as an Excel or CSV file by using the icons at the top of the table. However, the launch sub-sector is by far the most advanced of any of the SpaceFund sectors of interest, with over 100 companies competing for a relatively limited market. Each company has been assigned an SFR rating based on our analysis, publicly available data, and expert insights. 9. These innovations for very small and very large payload vehicles have led to lower costs for the launch industry as a whole. Losing one satellite would be devastating for national security capabilities. Its annual budget allocation this year is $1.4 billion. In-space manufacturing is another segment with both short and longer-term applications. To view and interact with our full dataset, please view on a desktop People are more expensive since they demand annoy things like "breathable air" and what not. While that's true, SpaceX is their own largest customer, so it's not entirely unfair. SpaceX increased the cost of additional. For the list of predominantly solid-fueled orbital launch systems, see: Comparison of solid-fueled orbital launch systems. SLS will cost close to $2 billion marginal cost. Assuming that rocket fuel costs approximately $100 -$120 per ton whereas Oxygen also costs about $100- $120 per ton. Do you feel that your company should have a different rating? In this example, its shorthand for saying the engine will turn on for 3 qualification tests and once at lift-off.). The usual approach is to compare launch costs per kilogram by dividing the total cost per flight by the maximum payload delivered to LEO. Browse Google Shopping to find the products you're looking for, track & compare prices, and decide where to buy online or in store. Delta Heavy's cost per launch is estimated to be $350 million while the cost of each Ariane 5 launch comes to $165 to 220 million. Most satellites have simple reliable chemical thrusters (often. Neglect the cost of the extension cord. Learn more about how But unlike during the early days of NASA preeminence, the rocket launch business over the past few years has matured into one where dozens of private companies around the globe are racing to see how cheaply they can send material into space. star. A suborbital test flight was conducted in April 2018. . The new rocket is designed to be at least as capable as the Ariane 5, but at half the launch cost. Contact us After subtracting the amount of European Space Agency subsidies to Arianespace, the per . Launch costs have been pretty much the same since the earliest days of space exploration, mostly due to an unchanging underlying technology: chemical rockets. Space Transportation Costs: Trends in Price Per Pound to Orbit 1990-2000, "As of 2003, the average launch cost/lb of payload in the U.S for small, medium, and heavy launches was $8,445, $4,994, and $4,440 respectively." ", "Potentially, we're talking about just a few dollars per kg with the elevator." Anything below this price and we're in the range of "sci-fi" launch systems life space elevators and launch loops. This subreddit is not an official outlet for SpaceX information. Press releases, 21st century (Larger payloads can cost more per kilogram because there are fewer alternatives for the harder launches.) For a typical five tonne communications satellite, this adds up to between $20 . The cost estimates for transportation to Mars cover a large span. The standard unit of measurement used depends on the type of product. Reduced launch prices have opened the New Space frontier of proliferated LEO small satellite mega-constellations that provide Space for Earth services. In theory, the launch cost for each pound of Startram payload could be as low as $44 per kg. The rocket's two stages stand 57 feet tall (15 meters) on the launchpad, and it can take payloads of up to 500 lbs. Building the first fully autonomous, and fully reusable small launch vehicle for affordable access to space, JP Aerospaceis a volunteer-based DIY Space Program. Click on theblackbuttons below to view the available SFR databases. The framework Prime Movers Lab uses to think about the space economy focuses on who the end-beneficiaries are for a given capability. That is not too far off the Greason-Bennett mature-market guess of $42,720. Definitely not more than one flight. Methodology: The LEO payload and cost-per-launch estimates shown in the first graphic represent the lower end of any ranges provided in the FAA's "The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2018." You could also compare Starship price to NASA with SLS price to NASA, this tells you something else (like how much money taxpayers can save if switching from SLS to Starship), but OP's comparison is also valid. Sometimes the government pays even more. That doesnt mean its getting the same cost savings enjoyed by commercial clients, however. A useful analogy is to buying a car, where the advertised price is for the no-frills base model, while theres the option of add-ons for additional fees (say, extra boosters to launch a heavier payload). This comparison of orbital launch systems lists the attributes of all individual rocket configurations designed to reach orbit. Developing reusable launch vehicle technology for orbital payloads in China, Building up Canada's NewSpace industry as the first private launch provider in Canso, Nova Scotia, Launch services for small, micro and nano satellites, Developing the sea-launched Gravity-1 vehicle, Developing a fully-reusable suborbital spacecraft, Developing Blue Whale 1, a micro launch vehicle, Developing the re-usable Skylon spaceplane powered by SABRE propulsion, Offering hassle-free space transportation to dedicated orbits, Building technologies for responsive, reliable and economic access to space, Building a reusable three-person rocket ship for space tourism, Sugarhouse Aerospace is built on a simple idea - space shouldn't be reserved for governments and billionaires, Offering flexible launch capability with a cycle of less than thirty days to build, integrate, and launch, Developing scalable and sustainable space transportation technology to become the backbone of the near space economy, Committed to reducing the cost of entering space via reusable launch products, Providing passengers with a trip into the stratosphere, Selling reusable launch vehicles for small, sub-orbital scientific/experimental payloads, Developing the ERIS launch vehicles to provide reliable and cost-effective access to space, Applying autonomous technology to develop a resuable small rocket, Lowering the entry barriers to space and making space access affordable and sustainable, Buildig the Xogdor rocket to test payloads at supersonic speeds and at the edge of space, Building a private 3-stage nanosatellite launch vehicle in China, A Euro startup developing tech for suborbital & orbital launch services, dedicated to small payloads and nanosatellites, Integrated launch services for the Zenit Launch Vehicle via a mobile sea platform, Cost effective small satellite launch services from the United Kingdom, Commercializing new suborbital rocket technologies, Small satellite space launch via a kinetic launch system, Developing a zero-emission space tourism platform, Building rockets to launch small satellites, Commercial launch vehicle manufacturer and space launch provider in China, Developinig the world's first 100% reusable rocket, Developing the Firefly Alpha launch vehicle; highest payload performance with the lowest cost per kg to orbit in its vehicle class, Launching sratospheric balloons for research and promotional purposes, Offering commercial suborbital platforms for scientific research, commercial applications, and defense, Developing the Vega & Ariane launch vehicles, Providing routine launch access to Earth orbit for entrepreneurs and enterprises, Offers a range of sounding rockets, capable of flights up to 300km in multistage configurations, Lowering the cost of access to space with reusable launch vehicles, Balloons that lift anything from a few kilograms to several tons and are able to operate at an altitude as low as a few hundred metres or as high as 40 km, Developing the Ceres-1 and Pallas-1 launch vehicles, Designs, manufactures, and operates launch vehicles, propulsion systems, and satellites and related components, Developing suborbital rockets to proide access and research for traditional and New-Space markets, The first rocket company and launch site for cubesat payloads in New Zealand, SpaceX designs, manufactures, and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft, SSC designs sounding rocket vehicles, stratospheric balloon systems, and payloads, A joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing, ULA produces the Vulcan, Atlas and Delta Launch Vehicle Families, UP Aerospace is a suborbital space launch and flight test service provider, Building a fleet of WhiteKnightTwo carrier aircraft and SpaceShipTwo reusable spaceships, The small payload orbital launch sister company to Virgin Galactic, The Stratollite is a remotely operated, navigable vehicle that can remain aloft for days, weeks, and months on end, iSpace is a Chinese private space launch company developing the Hyperbola rocket family, Launch vehicle manufacturer and launch services provider, Designing orbital-class launch vehicles that are autonomously constructed, Developing Dream Chaser, a multi-mission space utility vehicle designed to transport crew and cargo to low-Earth orbit, Formal press announcement confirming the company is no longer active, Website and all other media/materials are removed from the internet, Company re-classified (moved to a different SFR database), Website copyright has not been updated for 2+ years, No new company news/updates/press/social activity for 2+ years, No response after 2 weeks when contacted by SpaceFund via multiple channels. A Falcon Heavy launch vehicle from SpaceX. An industry analysis by Citigroup forecasts launch costs for operators of $100 per kg to LEO by 2040, which would be reflected in significantly lower launch prices for customers . The notable technology achievements for the shuttle include the first ceramic tile-based heat shield and the first oxygen/hydrogen fuel-rich staged combustion cycle engine, the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Transport & Infrastructure, Artwork This comparison shows the huge technological gap between them. The old design paradigm for satellites was multi-year, billion-dollar, school bus-sized projects going to geosynchronous orbit. I wouldnt bet much on SLS flying at all at this point. Important Note (Alpha Sort Columns vs Numeric Sort Columns):In the Payload, Launch Cost, and Price columns any figure listed as a 0 is simply a placeholder for unavailable data. On top of all those design considerations, many doubted the lower cost projections for reusable rockets were real. The company has dropped launch prices by something around 25 percent, Christensen says, saving customers as much as $10 million to $20 million, and putting pressure on rivals. Using that very rough equivalence, the Starship cost of $271.90 per kilogram would work out to a cost of approximately $73,490 per passenger round trip, if they can sell nearly every seat on every launch. Thats to say nothing of the fuel used to decelerate a returning booster that would have otherwise been used to reach a higher orbit (or carry more payload). Using a more capable rocket would be overkill even if the theoretical price per kilogram cost is cheaper on a larger rocket: for a 200 kg small sat a $5 million small sat launch is cheaper than a $50 million dedicated Falcon 9 flight. SpaceX's website previously listed the cost of a Falcon 9 launch at $62 million. An investigation of the performance potential of a liquid oxygen expander cycle rocket engine, by Dylan Thomas Stapp, Article from 2006: "A Falcon 1 launch costs US$6.7 million for up to 570 kilogrammes of payload delivered to orbit." A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches 143 small satellites into orbit from Space Launch Complex 40 at the Cape. Below is a detailed database of over 100 launch companies from all over the world. (For comparison, the Shuttles turn-around time was 24 months.) Still, these very technical big-dollar issues are increasingly being impacted by the changing economics and new generation of commercial space titans that are quickly transforming the launch industry. NASA has stated a long-term goal of making LEO accessible for tens of dollars per kilogram by 2040. These companies and their launch vehicles are in various stages of development, with some (such as SpaceX, RocketLab, and ULA) already in regular operation, while many new companies dont yet have financing or hardware. Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world. Damn I know what I'm spending my stimulus on. Methuselah Foundation, the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, and the Lifeboat Foundation. We believe the next decade will catalyze the tipping point to grow the Space for Space economy beyond the realm of governments and science missions. Page updated Google Sites Report abuse Data & trends My wild guess on initial pricing is something around 30 to 40,000,000 per flight which is about what the F9 sells for minus the manufacturing costs. The following chart shows the number of launch systems developed in each country, and broken down by operational status. physics, biology, astronomy, chemistry, and futurism. Is SpaceXs next launch vehicle, a fully reusable super heavy-lift, poised to become the dominant business model framework? Can anyone find a pie chart showing what part of this is so expensive? compared with just 722kg . The most cost-efficient overall is the 63,800-kilogram-capacity Falcon Heavy, which successfully test-launched earlier this year. The cost of the actual flight is about the same, but the fixed costs can be deferred over many more flights, costs are in the $100/kg range. Flights beyond that to actual orbita much higher altitudeare far more expensive, fetching more than $50 million per seat. But the project (called Avatar), is expected to take another nine years to complete. ULA had a monopoly on U.S. military space launches for more than a decadeuntil 2016, when SpaceX won an Air Force contract. Suborbital test flights in 1995, 1997 and 2002, no orbital launches attempted. All current spacecraft use conventional chemical rockets (bipropellant or solid-fuel) for launch, though some[note 3] have used air-breathing engines on their first stage. Due to the nature of this table format, and to ensure that the columns sort properly, a numeric character must be included in each cell. Where in the space economy ecosystem does one draw the line to think about Space for Space? Those flights will now start at $1.1 million to fly a payload weighing 200 kilograms to a sun-synchronous orbit, up from a base price of $1 million. Click on the column heading to sort A-Z; click again to sort Z-A. ULA is probably giving them funds for this, but the cool factor alone makes me want to chip in too!). But a Chinese official told me in 2019 that improved processes and high production rates had driven the cost of CASC's launches down in recent years to about US$50 million from US$70 million. A suborbital test flight was conducted in May 2018. On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. Home of PongSat and Airship to Orbit . While in the near term, offerings like on-orbit servicing for satellite life extension (Northrop Grumman, Space Logistics), propellant refueling depots (OrbitFab), and space situational awareness benefits the Space for Earth constellation operators, long-term these are the building blocks of a robust Space for Space infrastructure. class in the legend to hide vehicles of that class. Click on the 134,501. As of April 2016, SpaceX has indicated that a Falcon Heavy could lift 2268 kg (8000 lbs) to GTO for a cost of $90 million a launch - which works out to $ 3968. star. Despite the higher launch costs per payload kilogram of ULAs Delta IV and Atlas V, both rockets have been a mainstay of U.S. government launch contracts. The price of a Falcon 9 launch has gone up from $62 million to $67 million. The booster engine pack would jettison from the stage, deploy an inflatable re-entry heat shield, and eventually pop a parachute for helicopter recovery. The goals of the EELV program were two-fold: make expendable launch vehicles that were affordable and reliable. if we look at the price of comparable launch systems, we can see that in terms of kg delivered to LEO, the Falcon 9 is pretty good. Among geostationary or geosynchronous transfer (GTO) missions, which need to achieve a specific orbit of around 36,000 kilometers and are therefore better suited for direct comparisons, average launch costs are down about 20 percent from five years ago, according to Carolyn Belle, a senior analyst at space consultancy Northern Sky Research. It is our goal to keep this database as up to date as possible, which includes occasionally removing companies that are no longer active. When the space shuttle was in operation, it could launch a payload . The Funding column is set to sort alphabetically. PRICE DROP. We are also eager to learn about any additional data sources that can help us in our ongoing research, so please feel free to share any resources you know of with our team. Its like saying a car has no purpose because compared to a truck, it cant carry nearly as large of a payload. Plus the solid boosters and the second stage. The potential is reflected in the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario) in which hydrogen from renewables falls to as low as USD 1.3 per kg by 2030 in regions with excellent renewable resources (range USD 1.3-3.5 per kg), comparable with the cost of hydrogen from natural gas with CCUS. Christensen has since seen prices drop at both Europes Arianespace and the Atlas V program of United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Boeing thats been a regular provider of launches for the U.S. government. Clearly, this makes activities in space expensive. Varda Space Industries) to bio-manufacturing of retinas on the International Space Station (Lambda Vision). They are technically correct, but one of the real goals of the program was demonstrating a quick turn-around-time and aircraft-like operability. Below, Ive taken the data from the launch cost chart and included a new point estimating Starships cost [Ref]. Investors at Morgan Stanley have commented on the value of SpaceX + Starlink earlier this week dubbing the launch + satellite product offering a double flywheel of technology development. if(typeof ez_ad_units != 'undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[250,250],'futuretimeline_net-box-4','ezslot_3',115,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-futuretimeline_net-box-4-0');NASA has stated a long-term goal of making LEO accessible for tens of dollars per kilogram by 2040. By rejecting non-essential cookies, Reddit may still use certain cookies to ensure the proper functionality of our platform. Arianespace intends to slash the cost of launching the Ariane 6 by around 40 percent . My calculation omits at least as many factors as their calculation. Have we missed your company? In contrast, it costs some $170 million (150 million) to launch a commercial satellite on an Ariane 5. Things where the insane cost of construction dwarfs operational costs. The Ariane 5 is to be succeeded by the Ariane 6 in 2020 or 2021. menu. United Launch Alliance Atlas V 541 at US $ 27,063 per kg to GTO Comparing it with prices per kilogram to LEO given in the @PearsonArtPhoto's answer, this seems to suggest a roughly double and higher the price to Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO) than to LEO. Subscribe to our newsletter and learn something new every day. you are comparing internal SpaceX costs estimates vs external SLS charges. 11 Other companies are said to be considering similar ventures, including Apple, which has $107.1 billion in reserves. One of the best early design decisions was to down-select the simplest rocket cycle, the gas generator (GG). All this enabled their development of the Falcon 9, which provides a lower cost per . This comparison of orbital launch systems lists the attributes of all individual rocket configurations designed to reach orbit. NASA continues the trend to larger vehicles with its proposed newest member in the heavy-lift launch family, the Space Launch System (SLS) Block 2 vehicle. Looks like we could be looking at space tourism real soon. Units may be by weight, volume, length, area or number. (They need to launch an orbital mission first before any future conjecture on the design is warranted!).