It provides clear benefits to all three riparian, such as flood control, reduced flood damages and sediment control. Sudan, caught between the competing interests of both Egypt and Ethiopia, has been changing its stance on the issue. First, Ethiopia could highlight that it was not a party to either the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty or the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty. It can help the riparian states outline principles, rights, and obligations for cooperative management of the resources of the Nile. This article quantifies the major benefits of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project for Sudan and Egypt based on GERDP technical design and quantitative analysis. Still, Egypt may be playing with fire if it were to press the legal significance of the DoP. Thus, it is only through cooperation that Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and the other riparians can peacefully resolve conflicts over the Nile and achieve the type of water use that will contribute significantly to regional economic and human development. But the project has caused concern. Four of these would potentially be located on the main river and one would eventually evolve into the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile Rivers waters to Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (b.c.m.) Ultimately, however, Egypt did not sign the CFA (nor did Sudan) hence it does not resolve the dispute. Still, if the exception was somehow activated, it would mean that Egypt remains entitled to 66% of the Nile River waters and that this figure should be used as the baseline for any future negotiations. It will take between eight and ten years to fill the new dam. As a result, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has recognised water security as a possible threat to international peace. One senior advisor to former Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi alluded to it when he said that Ethiopia will supply the electricity, Sudan the food, and Egypt the money. To which we might add, and South Sudan will supply the oil.. Rendering of GERDEthiopia is building one of the largest dams in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), on the River Nile near the Sudan border. Ethiopian opinion is divided over the need for such huge investments in hydroelectric energy when the national network is still very underdeveloped and unable to cope. DISADVANTAGES OF ASWAN DAM the agriculture output of Egypt. However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. Water Policy, 16(4), 595-608. (2017). Ethiopia also seems to have the political upper hand given that the Dam is effectively a fait accompli and given that Egypts erstwhile downstream ally, Sudan, switched sides in the dispute leaving the Egyptians diplomatically isolated. The above-mentioned Gilgel Gibe III Dam stood out as the worlds most controversial dam until the GERD. Therefore, a negotiated position that favours Ethiopia is likely to be reached once it becomes politically palatable enough inside Egypt. khadsyy Plus. This is an intergovernmental partnership to provide a forum for consultation and coordination for the sustainable management and development of shared water. In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). Similarly, in 2018, the UNSC noted the water security risks in African nations such as Somalia, Sudan and Mali. Mainly, for the downstream countries, the. Match. Moreover, after the completion of the GERD, Egypt could run short of water if the operation of the GERD was not carefully coordinated with that of the AHD. The Grand Renaissance Dam and prospects for cooperation on the Eastern Nile. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the dam. Another important area of cooperation is research, especially in areas like climate change, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and human rights. The announcement on Friday comes a day after Ethiopia said it had launched power production from the second turbine at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Gebreluel, G. (2014). Given the advancement of the dam construction - the GERD being, as of March 2015, 40% complete, according to Ethiopia - Egypt had good reason to reconsider its position (RANE, 2015). Also, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry later held the Egyptian side accountable for failure of these negotiations. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. In the absence of the application of the Watercourses Convention, various other legal arrangements and political declarations must be considered to gain an understanding of the regulation of the Dam and the Nile River more generally. Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours. Under the Ethiopian constitution, the state is the proprietor of the countrys land and natural resources, which gives the government significant control over the allocation and use of land. The 10-year filling time of GERD will likely contribute to fastened salinisation in Egypt. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. (eds.). Indeed, the ICJ confirmed in Gabikovo-Nagymaros Project that all riparian states have a basic right to an equitable and reasonable sharing of the resources of the watercourse. Moreover, these principles were pulled through into the DoP agreed by both Egypt and Ethiopia. The Nile is not a boundary-delimiting river, hence Ethiopia would almost certainly argue that the exception should not be applied here. Downstream countries Egypt and Sudan have expressed concerns over the impacts of the dam on their water supply. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Ending Africa's Oldest Geopolitical Rivalry? In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation (Salman, 2017). Egypts Nile Water Policy under Sisi: Security Interests Promote Rapprochement with Ethiopia. However, Sudans future water requirements will likely exceed its water quota as defined in the 1959 Agreement. There are suggestions that Egyptian officials in the World Bank managed to precipitate a policy that funds would only be awarded for non-contentious water projects, thus precluding funding for the Dam. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam located in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 45 km east of the border with Sudan. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and hydroelectric project is located 700 km northeast of the capital city Addis Abeba, in the Benishangul--Gumaz region of Ethiopia, along the Blue Nile River. This paper discusses the challenges and benefits of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is under construction and expected to be operational on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia in a few years. when did construction of the dam begin? Nile negotiations break down as Egypt, Sudan accuse Ethiopia of rejecting legally binding agreement. Water scarcity is a growing problem. Most recently, there have been suggestions that the African Union should resolve the disagreement. In 1964, the US Land Reclamation Bureau conducted a study for the Ethiopian government, identifying 33 hydraulic projects in the Blue Nile Basin. These are two of the largest dams in Africa. One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? Finally, Ethiopia could make a strong case that the operation of the Dam is in alignment with the core principles of international water law, namely equitable utilisation and no significant harm. These are found in Articles 5 and 7 of the Water Courses Convention respectively and, despite the scepticism outlined above, arguably form part of customary international law. The withdrawal from the project by Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear . Cairo . Ethiopia seems to have the legal upper hand in this dispute. The toll on the local communities affected by the dams has been enormous. The New Arab (2020b). The three countries have agreed that when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. Flashcards. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. European countries including Italy, Belgium and especially the UK controlled the Nile as part of colonisation and the broader Scramble for Africa. These colonising states used the tactic of concluding treaties (often at gunpoint) to secure their interests and, in this case, essentially prohibit upstream states from using their own waters. Indeed, Sudan had initially opposed the Dam but changed its position in 2012 after consultations with Ethiopia. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Nevertheless, it is important to take stock of the human costs, social problems, and lasting environmental impacts of this strategy which have already drawn considerable criticism and concern. Recently, however, Sudan has been more cautious with the project, citing concerns that the GERDs operation and safety could jeopardise its own dams (The New Arab, 2020b). In general, the Ethiopian development philosophy rests on two pillars: mega-dams and mega-agricultural projects. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. This includes Sudan, another downstream nation that one might assume would oppose its construction. The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . It is therefore intrinsically connected with the question of land ownership. It's very unpredictable and it can be very dangerous," says Pottinger. Faced with the anachronistic Nile Waters Treaties on the one hand and the absence of a suitable replacement on the other, discussions about the Dam have fallen into something of a stalemate. After all, the VCLT allows states to withdraw from or terminate a treaty owing to a fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred and which was not foreseen by the parties (Article 62(1)). Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. Although Ethiopia has argued that the hydroelectric GERD will not significantly affect the flow of water into the Nile, Egypt, which depends almost entirely on the Nile waters for household and commercial uses, sees the dam as a major threat to its water security. The Blue Nile is Ethiopias largest river, with high potential for hydropower and irrigation. The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Turning then to Ethiopia. grand ethiopian renaissance dam. Whittington, D. et al. l located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia . As early as 1957, Ethiopian officials said that the Somalian economy could not survive on its own given how heavily dependent it was on Ethiopia. Ethiopias Blue Nile Dam is an opportunity for regional collaboration, Developing countries are key to climate action, Self-organizing Nigeria: The antifragile state, Managing the compounding debt and climate crises. The Dam is used to generate electricity and went into partial operation in 2022. Egypts main argument might be that, despite being unsatisfactory and anachronistic, the Nile Waters Treaties remain good law and are enforceable against the respective parties. What are the disadvantages of the Aswan Dam? Egypt and Ethiopia have once again locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. The Tendaho, Tekeze, and the Gibe series are only a few examples from that period. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will increase energy generation and development in Ethiopia, but it may have unwanted consequences for other Nile River users. The strategy and its surrounding narrative have attracted large influxes of foreign investment in the Ethiopian agrarian sector, with multi-million dollar leases of agricultural land to foreigners generally linked to irrigation projects planned in tandem with the construction of the dam. That seems unlikely given that the DoP concerns the Dam alone and was agreed only between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan; whereas the Nile Waters Treaties concern the whole Nile Basin and involve many more states. At this point, though, the GERD is nearly completed, and so Egypt has shifted its position to trying to secure a political agreement over the timetable for filling the GERDs reservoir and how the GERD will be managed, particularly during droughts. The US has revived diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute sparked by Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Nile. The Nile-COM is the highest political and decisionmaking body of the NBI. Location l Formerly called as project x then known as the Millennium Dam then it renamed to Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. Government of the United States of America. In: Yihdego, Z. et al. Swain, A. More alarmingly, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak allegedly even considered bombing the Dam. The New Arab (2020a). To date, no significant harm has been caused to Egypt or Sudan as a result of the ongoing construction of the GERD. India dispatch: Supreme Court limits DNA paternity testing in divorce proceedings, prioritizing childrens privacy rights, US dispatch: Texas case could limit access to abortion medication, Copyright infringement made federal crime. Recently, the tensions among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile have escalated, particularly after Ethiopia announced that it had started filling the GERDs reservoir, an action contrary to Egypts mandate that the dam not be filled without a legally binding agreement over the equitable allocation of the Niles waters. In 2019, the UNESCO World Heritage Committee warned that the Gibe III Dam had already disrupted the seasonal patterns of Lake Turkana and that this would reduce fish life and harm local communities dependent on the Lake. IDS (2013). July 26, 2022. Ethiopia has the basins most suitable locations for hydropower production, and its damming of the Blue Nile would significantly increase Sudan's potential for irrigated agriculture. But this did not rule out eruptions of tension, not just between local communities and the central government, but also between Ethiopia and its neighbours. This antipathy is not new, with Munzinger noting even in the nineteenth century that Ethiopia is a danger for Egypt [which] must either take over Ethiopia and Islamize it or, retain it in anarchy and misery. Still, the Dam brings the old enmity into sharp focus. Neither the Egyptian nor the Ethiopian governments received positive domestic feedback on their agreement. Even then, the initial studies did not extend beyond the borders with Kenya. Given agricultures importance to pro-poor economic growth, Egypt, which has significant experience and expertise in irrigation agriculture, can share some of that expertise with other countries in exchange for increased trade with them. Ethiopia, whose highlands supply more than 85 percent of the water that flows into the Nile River, has long argued that it has the right to utilize its natural resources to address widespread poverty and improve the living standards of its people. Further, it means that this figure should be used to assess the impact of the Dam on the Egyptian economy for the purposes of calculating compensation resulting from loss of flow.